The global avocado market: 60 years of Mexico’s leadership and its impact on the next decade

Abstract

This research studies Mexico’s leadership for 60 years (1961-2019) in the production and worldwide market of avocado. The Pearson’s Correlation analysis of the variables that make up the market — supply (production), demand (consumption) and price — verifies that the correlation of the variables is «high» and «direct», however it is not «perfect», demonstrating that in the medium or long term the profitability of the business will be affected by the lack of a proportional dynamic between the three variables (the trend of the increase in the volume of production is greater than the demand). It is verified that the supply determines the rise or fall in the price of the product (Smith, 1776, n/d), and that in the absence of a coordinated strategy of the avocado sector in Mexico, the income of the national producer will be systematically reduced until the market finds its point of equilibrium.